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UK migration could be negative this year – how will that hit the economy?

Release Date
2026-02-14
Media
The Guardian
Summary
The article explains how the UK government’s tougher immigration rules have sharply reduced net migration and are now affecting universities, businesses, and the wider economy.

Stricter limits on foreign students and skilled workers have caused a steep drop in visa applications. Universities, which depend heavily on international tuition fees, are facing financial strain, with some considering mergers to survive. Businesses in sectors such as construction, healthcare, hospitality, and social care are also struggling to recruit staff because they had relied on migrant workers.

Recent figures suggest that net migration, which reached nearly one million just three years ago, could fall to zero or even become negative for the first time since 1993. While this may ease political pressure on the government from anti-immigration parties, it is expected to hurt economic growth and reduce tax revenues.

Analysts estimate that if net migration falls to zero, the UK’s national income could shrink by several percent by 2040, a loss comparable to the economic impact of Brexit. The decline is largely due to new policies such as banning care workers from bringing family members, raising minimum salary thresholds for work visas, restricting dependents of international students, and tightening enforcement against employers.

Some experts say the current drop in migration may be temporary, but others warn that severe restrictions amount to economic “self-harm,” since migrants tend to earn above-average wages and contribute positively to public finances.

The article also contrasts the UK with Germany, which is expanding pathways for foreign workers and apprentices to address its aging population. While zero net migration could be politically beneficial for the UK government, it is likely to create serious economic and fiscal challenges.
Tags
United Kingdom

News Articles including "United Kingdom"

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