World Immigration News

Study: Immigration has not raised German crime rate

Release Date
2025-02-20
Media
DW
Summary
A new analysis by Germany's renowned ifo Institute found no correlation between immigration and crime rates. The study, which examined crime statistics from 2018 to 2023 along with regional data, concluded that immigrants or refugees do not have a higher tendency to commit crimes.

The overrepresentation of immigrants in crime statistics is linked to their concentration in urban areas, which naturally have higher crime rates for both Germans and foreigners due to factors like population density and nightlife. While immigrants are generally younger and more often male, these factors are not the primary causes of crime.

Despite this, the narrative of rising immigrant crime is being used in German political campaigns, particularly by the far-right AfD party, whose claims have been debunked by fact-checkers. The ifo study aligns with previous research showing no systematic link between immigration and criminality.

A key contribution of the study is its focus on regional crime data, offering a more accurate analysis. It also highlights a perception gap: immigrants' education levels are underestimated, while their numbers and crime involvement are overestimated.

Media coverage plays a role in shaping public fears by disproportionately reporting on immigrant crime. Additionally, immigrants are more likely to appear in crime statistics due to a higher likelihood of being reported and prosecuted compared to German perpetrators.
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GERMANY

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